What if Tua Tagovailoa transferred to USC? Here’s how college football would be different

Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa said he almost transferred to USC as a freshman. What if he did? This is how college football would have been different.

Today, Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is one of the leading Heisman Trophy candidates on the No. 2 team in the nation and could be in line for his second national championship in three years. But if you step in your hot tub time machine and go back to 2017, Tagovailoa was really close to leaving Alabama and transferring to USC.

Tagovailoa wanted a chance to play and playing on the west coast for the Hawaii native was appealing so his parents and extended family could see him play.

“I wanted to have my parents see me play, my parents wanted to see me play,” Tagovailoa said. “Just doing things for my parents, making my parents proud is the biggest thing I wanted to do, and I couldn’t do it on the sidelines.”

Of course, Tagovailoa didn’t transfer to USC to the dismay of Trojans fans everywhere and replaced Hurts in the second half of the National Championship Game as a freshman to throw three touchdowns, including the game-winner in overtime. He was the runner-up for the Heisman Trophy one year later in 2018 as a sophomore and led the Crimson Tide to the National Championship Game, albeit a loss vs. Clemson.

Could you imagine how things would have been different for Tagovailoa, Alabama, Hurts, USC and the rest of college football?

Let’s play everyone’s favorite hypothetical and explore the “What if Tua Tagovailoa transferred to USC?”

What it means for Alabama, Georgia and the rest of the SEC

If Tagovailoa transferred to USC as a freshman, let’s assume he does it before the College Football Playoff. That means he’s not there to come off the bench and throw three second-half touchdowns to lead Alabama to a comeback win against Georgia in the National Championship Game. Hurts struggled mightily in the game, but without a backup plan, Nick Saban would have stuck with the former SEC Offensive Player of the Year. Based on how he played in the first half, he wouldn’t have suddenly fixed everything in the second half.

That means Georgia would have won the national championship, their first since 1980. That team was loaded with Roquan Smith, Nick Chubb, Sony Michel and freshman quarterback, Jake Fromm, among others.

It would have been Fromm, not Tagovailoa, as the freshman wunderkind who was the darling of college football. Kirby Smart would have been the first Saban assistant to get a win against his protege, and in the National Championship no less.

It also means Hurts would not have been in a quarterback competition with Tagovailoa ahead of the 2018 season. Hurts would have remained the starter and continued to do produce at a high level as he did the first two seasons of his career.

And as seen by Hurts coming off the bench to replace an injured Tagovailoa vs. Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, had the goods to beat the Dawgs. Alabama would have been in the College Football Playoff in 2018 without Tagovailoa, but would they have beaten Oklahoma and Kyler Murray in the semifinals?

I’d say yes because the defense was so good in the first half to give the offense a big cushion they could sit on in the second half when Murray figured things out a bit. But I’d still have Clemson beating Alabama in the end.

What it means for Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma and Alabama’s skill players

One of the biggest storylines of the last year was where will Hurts go? He transferred to Oklahoma and the early returns are really promising. He’s putting up similar, if not better, numbers than his predecessors, Murray and Baker Mayfield, did in Lincoln Riley’s offense. He might be the only one who can beat Tagovailoa for the Heisman this year.

With Hurts, Oklahoma is a national title contender. Without Hurts, Oklahoma could have pursued a different transfer, perhaps Justin Fields who left Georgia for Ohio State. Or perhaps Austin Kendall doesn’t transfer to West Virginia and gets a chance to win the job over five-star freshman Spencer Rattler. I think Rattler starting for Oklahoma is the most likely outcome in this hypothetical. He has all the talent and potential to be a superstar but he’s not Hurts so the Sooners may not be the title contenders they are in 2019.

Without Tagovailoa taking the job from him, Hurts would be in his fourth year as the starting quarterback at Alabama. He’d likely be shattering all sorts of records that his former teammate is doing. But would he have developed into the NFL prospect and thrower he has under Riley?

It’s fair to say that wouldn’t have happened, at least not to the extent it is as Oklahoma. The natural development and progression would have seen him grow as a passer from what was shown his first two years, but what he’s doing at Oklahoma is stuff we didn’t see at Alabama.

And with Hurts under center, would Alabama receiver Jerry Jeudy have won the Biletnikoff Award as the nation’s top receiver? Would Jeudy be able to show off his elite set of skills that has him in position to be arguably the top draft prospect in his class? Would Henry Ruggs III be able to show off his sprinter’s speed without a thrower like Tagovailoa? Alabama would still be a title contender, but could LSU, Joe Burrow and their newfound passing attack be more of a legit threat? How about Auburn? How about Georgia?

Escaping from the gauntlet that is the SEC schedule would be that much more difficult. With Tagovailoa, they can run the table. With Hurts, I see a loss on their schedule, which could squeeze them from the College Football Playoff.

What it means for USC, Clay Helton and Urban Meyer

Tagovailoa would have been a blessing for the Trojans and embattled head coach Clay Helton. Let’s hypothesize that Tagovailoa transferred during his freshman season. That could have meant the NCAA would have allowed Tagovailoa to be eligible in 2018.

The NCAA’s four-game redshirt rule was not in effect then, but let’s theorize he took a redshirt to preserve a year of eligibility nonetheless. And with several transfers being allowed to play without sitting, let’s just assume he wouldn’t have had to sit out a year. That would mean he could have seamlessly taken over for the departed Sam Darnold who left for the NFL Draft after his redshirt sophomore season. With Tagovaila at quarterback, USC surely would not have struggled to a 5-7 record. It also surely would have meant Helton is not sitting on a seat as hot as the Chernobyl reactor.

That could also mean JT Daniels doesn’t commit to USC out of Mater Dei High School, which is a pipeline school for the Trojans. It wouldn’t guarantee Tagovailoa would have been the Heisman runner-up but with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Michael Pittman, Jr and Tyler Vaughns, he would have had an impressive trio of receivers to work with.

The passing game would have benefitted Aca’Cedric Ware, Vavae Malepeai and Stephen Carr who combined for about 1,600 yards and 16 touchdowns. He wouldn’t have had the type of talent he has at Alabama but he would have the talent to thrive, especially against Pac-12 defenses.

I think Tagovailoa has a profound effect on USC’s record in 2018 and the Trojans win 10 games and the Pac-12 South over Utah. They then beat Washington to win the Pac-12 championship. That isn’t enough to get them in the College Football Playoff, but it’s the second conference championship in three years for Helton.

With Tagovailoa back in 2019, he is a Heisman contender, recruits flock to USC to play with him and the Trojans are a preseason top-10 team. We don’t get the Kedon Slovis or Matt Fink cameos but USC is the team to beat in the Pac-12 over Washington, Utah and Oregon and a playoff contender where he could face his former team in the playoff. Helton has job security and doesn’t have to worry about Urban Meyer coming in to take his job. Instead, the rumors would be heating up about Meyer replacing Willie Taggart at Florida State.

Alas, Tagovailoa chose to stay at Alabama and ripples were not cast out throughout the college football world that would have affected USC, Oklahoma, Georgia, Meyer, Hurts, Helton, Daniels and countless others.

Sometimes it pays to stay where you’re at and compete and wait for your opportunity than run at the first sign of adversity.

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